What moved overnight, in five minutes — from the Hong Kong desk.
Overnight
New York closed Monday on the front foot, two rate rises in three days notwithstanding. The S&P 500 finished at 7,764.70 (+1.49%), the Nasdaq at 27,122.09 (+2.26%) and bitcoin at 86,615 (+6.68%). The ten-year Treasury is 4.951%, back below the 5.00% this column carried into the weekend, and the ticker's change column reads −0.98%. The Federal Reserve's range is 3.75–4.00% after Wednesday's 12–0 vote; the Bank of Japan's is around 1.25% after Friday's. New York's answer, on its first full session with both behind it, was to buy.
Asia and Europe
Tokyo has not traded since Friday and does not trade today. The Nikkei 225 sits at 65,018.73, Friday's close; the +1.38% beside it is stale by construction and is not a move. Hong Kong closed Monday at 25,042.71 (+1.18%); Europe finished higher, the DAX at 25,575.01 (+1.07%) and the FTSE 100 at 10,739.01 (+0.75%).
FX, rates and commodities
The dollar is a touch softer: EUR/USD 1.1490 (+0.26%), GBP/USD 1.3395 (+0.38%), USD/JPY 157.27 (−0.39%), USD/HKD 7.8454 (+0.01%) — the ticker's readings at 07:15 Hong Kong time. West Texas Intermediate is US$92.10 and gold US$4,362.80; the change column is blank for both, so they are levels and not moves. This column carried WTI at 95.96 and gold at 4,374.30 yesterday, and the gap between them is not a number the screen prints.
The day ahead
Tokyo is shut again today, the second of three consecutive market holidays. The JPX market-holiday calendar lists Respect for the Aged Day on Monday, "Holiday 2" today — its note calls 22 September 2026 "a holiday in accordance with Rule 3, Paragraph 3 of Act on National Holidays" — and the Autumnal Equinox tomorrow. The exchange's holiday-trading schedule, updated 26 June, marks today Open for derivatives: Osaka prices Nikkei 225 futures while Tokyo's cash market stays dark. Japan's next cash session is Thursday 24 September, the day the Bank of Japan's new guideline takes effect. Hong Kong, Europe and New York all trade today.
One number
7,764.70 — Monday's close on the S&P 500, up 1.49%. It is the answer two rate rises in three days received, and a level Tokyo cannot match until Thursday.
One read
The month's bond argument has been about one handle. Our markets desk walked it on 19 September: The 10-year Treasury's round trip through 5%, and the auctions behind it. Its case: the push through 5% came from the front end of the curve, not a repricing of long-term risk; the auctions, not the meeting calendar, state the long end's price. A close above 5.01% would say the handle had stopped acting as a ceiling; one below 4.94% would say the front end had finished. This morning's 4.951% is neither; the thinning bid at the twenty-year sales is the figure to watch.
