Overnight

The ten-year Treasury yield is 5.00%, one day after this column had it at 4.939%; the ticker reads the move at +1.24%. That is the third morning this column has written the same line — 5.02% on Thursday, 4.939% on Friday, 5.00% today — and a yield that keeps returning to 5% is being traded, not settled. Who bought the note back overnight is not on this screen, and the desk will not invent it. Friday's US cash session closed a touch firmer: the S&P 500 at 7,650.50, up 0.17%; the Nasdaq at 26,522.55, up 0.39%.

Asia and Europe

Both finished Friday before New York finished its own. Asia was the stronger: the Nikkei 225 at 65,018.73, up 1.38%; the Hang Seng at 24,750.79, up 0.60%. Europe was the weaker by a distance: the DAX at 25,304.06, down 1.60%; the FTSE 100 at 10,659.13, down 1.45%. A split that wide is a fact, not an argument; the reason is not on this desk's screen.

FX, rates and commodities

The dollar is firmer across the board. The yen is 157.89, softer by 1.83% on the ticker's reading; the same screen read 155.69 at this hour yesterday. EUR/USD is 1.1460, down 0.67%; sterling 1.3344, down 0.83%; USD/HKD 7.8449, unchanged and close to the weak side of the 7.75–7.85 band. WTI is US$96.08 and gold US$4,379; the ticker carries no percentage for either, so the desk quotes levels only — the same screen read US$96.61 and US$4,346.20 yesterday. Crypto, the only market still pricing on a Saturday, is up sharply: bitcoin 81,019, up 6.00%; ether 2,614.43, up 6.83%.

The day ahead

Saturday is shut, and the day ahead is thin — reported here as thin. Every cash market this desk prices is closed. Tokyo is the exception worth knowing: closed Monday for Respect for the Aged Day, Tuesday for the bridging holiday, Wednesday for the autumn equinox, so its next cash session is Thursday 24 September; Japan's exchanges will run derivatives trading through all three days, the exchange group JPX said in a notice dated Friday. Hong Kong trades Monday, its Mid-Autumn holiday falling on Saturday 26 September. What the desk watches at the reopen is whether 5.00% holds, and how far the yen runs.

One number

5.00% — the ten-year, and the third reading of the same line this week: 5.02% on Thursday, 4.939% on Friday, 5.00% now. Three readings are not a trend and the desk will not call them one.

One read

The number is the one our markets desk took apart on 7 September: At 5%, the ten-year note is the world's opinion poll. Its case: one yield prices American mortgages, equity multiples and every carry trade, and the part no central bank sets, the term premium, answers to supply and fear rather than to the meeting calendar. Issuance mix and auction tails, not the next Fed decision, are the inputs worth carrying into next week.