What the weekend left, in five minutes — from the Hong Kong desk.
Overnight
Monday morning in Hong Kong opens on a board that is almost entirely still. No equity or rates session has run since Friday, so the levels on it are Friday's last quotes carried through an untraded weekend — not a new move, and not this morning's news. Crude is the exception: the new week's first session is open in oil, quoting firmer around US$102 a barrel, the only price on the board trading as this is written. Why, this desk cannot tell you.
Asia and Europe
Friday left Asia lower and Europe higher, and neither has traded since. The Nikkei closed its week around 64,011, down about 2%; the Hang Seng ended near 24,806, off 0.6%; the FTSE 100 sat at 10,650 and the DAX at 25,569 — Friday's figures, frozen. Tokyo and Hong Kong reprice them later this morning; until then the screen is a photograph.
FX, rates and commodities
The dollar went into the weekend where it left it: 154.04 against the yen, 7.842 against the Hong Kong dollar, EUR/USD at 1.1592 — Friday's quotes. The ten-year Treasury yield sits at 4.969%, a whisker under 5%, where the long bond finished last week. Gold holds the record area, around US$4,342. Crypto ran through the weekend, and downward: bitcoin has drifted into the high-76,000s, ether around US$2,475 — a slow leak in a thin market, but the only genuine weekend move.
The day ahead
Two numbers sit above this week: a ten-year yield within a hair of 5%, and a barrel above US$100. Both were set last week; the question is whether anyone defends them when the full board reopens — Asia in a few hours, then London and New York. A quiet weekend does not buy a quiet week; it only means the week starts with its questions unanswered.
One number
US$102 — crude, the only price on the board actually trading this morning, holding above the US$100 line on which the week closed.
One read
The ten-year is the thread to hold this week; our case is set out in At 5%, the ten-year note is the world's opinion poll: a yield camped at this level is not a Federal Reserve forecast but a price being charged for time, and everything long-dated — equity multiples included — is valued off it whether the owners admit it or not. A barrel above US$100 beside a long bond near 5% compounds in the same discount rate. Watch a behaviour rather than a forecast: whether the long end stays camped, and whether equities keep shrugging.
